The UK economy grew by 0.4 per cent in July, well above the consensus forecast for no growth, according to figures published today by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). The statistics agency said the World Cup and record hot weather had lifted activity.
The monthly rise in gross domestic product followed growth of 0.3 per cent in June, while output stalled in May, the ONS monthly GDP estimate for July showed.
The ONS said businesses, especially in the hospitality sector, reported a boost in sales from the World Cup, which reached its latter stages in July. It said the record hot weather in the month also lifted activity.
The ONS figures show the increase in July was largely driven by a 0.4 per cent rise in services output. Service industries accounted for 81 per cent of UK economic output in the final three months of 2025, according to the House of Commons Library.
Production output rose by 0.2 per cent in July and construction output increased by 0.1 per cent.
On the three-month measure preferred by the ONS, GDP grew by 0.4 per cent in the three months to July. That matched growth in the three months to June.
The ONS’s first estimate for May had shown growth of 0.1 per cent, before the figure was revised down by 0.1 percentage points in its June bulletin.
July’s figures follow a first half in which the UK was the fastest-growing economy in the G7, according to the Resolution Foundation. The think tank said on 13 August that the economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the first quarter and 0.4 per cent in the second, giving combined growth of 1 per cent.
Stephen Hunsaker, economist at the Resolution Foundation, said at the time: “Britain’s economy has slowed after a strong start to the year, but growth of 0.4 per cent in the second quarter still leaves the UK leading the pack ahead of its G7 peers.”
The think tank said growth in the first half had left the economy 0.4 per cent larger than the Office for Budget Responsibility forecast in March, but warned that the economic fallout from the Iran war may cancel out that good news. It noted that the Bank of England had downgraded its future growth outlook.
The World Cup also featured in the ONS’s June figures, published on 13 August. The agency said the tournament, which started on 11 June, was cited as a reason for an increase in turnover in June by businesses in industries such as the manufacture of alcohol, wholesale, food and beverage serving activities, publishing, television production and advertising.
In July, payments company Square reported that transactions at Britain’s pubs and bars rose 145 per cent on the day of England’s World Cup semi-final against Argentina, with late-night trade between 10pm and 2am up 97 per cent.
The ONS’s June bulletin also said some businesses across manufacturing, retail, accommodation, and amusement and recreation cited positive impacts from the hot weather. The warm weather was also cited as having a negative impact on construction and on education, where schools were closed because of the heatwave.
Provisional Met Office figures put the mean temperature for June, July and August at 16.5C, the highest in a series stretching back to 1884, making it the UK’s warmest summer on record. The Met Office said on 1 September that the figure was 1.9C above the 1991-2020 average and beat the previous record of 16.1C set in 2025.
Separate analysis by the think tank Verdant put lost UK output from repeated heatwaves at £4.4bn by the end of July, citing reduced worker productivity and equipment shutdowns.
The ONS’s next monthly GDP estimate is due on 15 October.
